A note from Aravind: As global interest in EO and EO-based applications grows, so has the readership of the TerraWatch newsletter in the past couple of years. Unlike every piece you have read here, which I have written, I am delighted to introduce a new series of essays written by guest writers - experienced professionals in geospatial and the wider remote sensing sector. The goal of these essays is to go deeper into topics that generally do not get much coverage in the wider press but are significant for the growing EO sector.
This first essay, written by Anusuya Datta, an experienced journalist in the geospatial world, focuses on the growing global interest in EO. You may have noticed that we are launching more and more EO satellites - in fact, we have launched over 100 EO satellites just this year. This piece dives into the drivers for EO satellites, the evolution of NASA and ESA budgets, an overview of national EO initiatives, and thoughts on the future of national EO programs.
Earth Observation (EO) has become essential for understanding and responding to global challenges, including natural disasters, climate change, and geopolitical shifts. Countries worldwide invest heavily in EO to address these challenges and support long-term national objectives. In this article, we analyze the key drivers behind EO programs, examine EO budget allocations for NASA and ESA in recent years, assess national EO initiatives worldwide, and provide an outlook on government investments in EO.
Governmental space budgets are on a steady rise globally, and this upward trend is expected to continue in 2024. While EO budgets represent only a fraction of this total, the growth reflects the increasing focus on using space technologies to address critical challenges like climate change, disaster management, and resource monitoring.
Drivers of EO Programs
The two key drivers for EO have traditionally been defense and disaster management, and that continues to be the case.
National Security and Geopolitics
Government spending has historically focused on civil space activities, but 2023 marked a notable shift, with defense expenditures surpassing civil investments for the first time. This shift reflects the growing prioritization of defense-related space initiatives as geopolitical tensions escalate. The most significant surge was in investments directed toward security and early warning systems. Defense-related EO investments are likely seeing a proportional increase, driven by the growing demand for real-time intelligence, surveillance, and resource monitoring.
The OECD's The Space Economy in Figures report highlights the growing emphasis on military space activities. The establishment of the U.S. Space Force and the focus on military space strategies in countries like the United Kingdom illustrate this trend.
The 2023 space budget exemplifies this realignment in the U.S., where USSF was allocated US$26.3 billion – just three years after its inception in 2019 – outpacing NASA's funding of US$25.4 billion. The gap increased in 2024 with USSF allocated US$29 billion against NASA’s US$24.87 billion.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and escalating tensions in the Middle East have further underscored the critical role of EO in delivering real-time intelligence and situational awareness.
Environmental Monitoring and Disaster Management
The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events have driven governments to prioritize investments in EO for enhanced resilience and impact mitigation.
Evolution of NASA and ESA budgets
NASA EO Budget Trends: Advancing Climate Science Amid Funding Challenges
NASA’s Earth Science Division budget has shown an upward trajectory, from approximately US$1.9 billion in 2016 to a projected US$2.38 billion in 2025. Over the past years, NASA has announced and launched several key EO missions to enhance our understanding of Earth's climate, weather, and environmental systems. Notable programs include:
● Landsat 9: Launched in September 2021, Landsat 9 continues the legacy of the Landsat program, providing high-quality imagery for monitoring land use, agriculture, forestry, and water resources.
● TROPICS: Launched in 2023, TROPICS (Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats) consists of a constellation designed to provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements, improving the forecasting of tropical cyclones.
● NISAR: NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar is a joint mission with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). Now set for launch in 2025, the mission will provide detailed observations of Earth's surface, including ecosystem disturbances, ice-sheet dynamics, and natural hazards like earthquakes and tsunamis.
However, despite a growing budget, several of NASA’s EO programs have faced delays due to technical, budgetary, or administrative challenges.
| Program Name | Objective | Original Timeline | Budget Challenges | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) | To monitor ocean health, aerosols, and clouds for climate research. | Planned for launch in 2022. | Faced potential budget cuts in 2018, leading to concerns about delays. | Despite challenges, PACE was finally launched in February 2024. |
| CLARREO Pathfinder (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) | To provide high-accuracy climate observations. | Initially proposed for early 2010s; scaled-down version planned for 2016. | Budget constraints led to deferral of the full mission; only a scaled-down version was pursued. | Even the scaled-down version, CLARREO Pathfinder, faced multiple delays and is now expected to launch in 2025. |
| GeoCARB (Geostationary Carbon Cycle Observatory) | To monitor CO₂, methane, and carbon monoxide over the Americas. | Proposed in 2016 with a planned launch in 2022. | Encountered budget constraints and technical challenges, leading to cost overruns. | NASA canceled the GeoCARB mission in 2022 due to escalating costs. |
| OCO-3 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3) | To measure atmospheric CO₂ from the ISS. | Installed on the ISS in 2019. | Faced potential budget cuts threatening development and operational duration. | OCO-3 was successfully installed and is currently operational; but future funding remains uncertain. |
| ICESat-2 | Monitor ice sheet elevation and surface changes. | Launch in 2016 | Development delays due to technical and budgetary constraints. | Launched in 2018; delays postponed critical polar data collection. |
| Earth System Observatory | Study Earth's systems, including aerosols, cloud convection, and precipitation. | Phased implementation | Budget constraints led to a restructuring of missions like Surface Biology and Geology into smaller projects. | Some components delayed to reduce near-term costs; mission execution flexibility improved. |
| SWOT | High-resolution data on freshwater bodies and ocean topography. | Launch in 2020 | Budget constraints in 2016 delayed development; required international cost-sharing with CNES. | Successfully launched in December 2022 after timeline adjustments. |
Outlook: An Uncertain Future for Public EO Funding in the US
Collecting and analyzing climate data is resource-intensive, requiring sophisticated satellites and sensors supported by stable funding. However, the long-term stability remains uncertain, as it can be influenced by shifting political landscapes. Although the Biden administration prioritized climate initiatives, changes in political priorities could impact the funding stability for EO missions beyond 2025.
As highlighted in TerraWatch Nov 11 edition newsletter, during the first Trump Administration, NASA’s Earth Science missions faced repeated budget cut attempts. NOAA, which manages key weather and climate research programs, also experienced funding reductions. Policy experts remain uncertain about how the incoming administration will prioritize EO missions.
ESA EO Budget Trends: Driving Climate and Sustainability
The European Space Agency (ESA) has steadily increased its investment in Earth Observation, demonstrating a clear commitment to tackling environmental and climate challenges. Since its establishment in 2014, the Copernicus program has received consistent investment from ESA, making it the world’s largest and most advanced open data Earth Observation initiative for climate, disaster, and resource management.
ESA’s 2019 Ministerial Council allocated €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) to EO programs from 2020 to 2022. This trend continued in 2022 when ESA secured €2.7 billion for EO over the next three years. Thanks to this steady increase in funding, ESA has been able to accelerate several key EO projects in the past few years.
| Mission | Launch Date | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Sentinel-2C | September 5, 2024 | Part of the Copernicus program, providing high-resolution optical imagery for land monitoring, vegetation, soil, water cover, and disaster relief. |
| Φsat-2 | August 16, 2024 | Cubesat designed to revolutionize Earth Observation with artificial intelligence. |
| EarthCARE | May 28, 2024 | Joint mission with JAXA to study interactions between clouds, aerosols, and radiation, critical for climate modeling. |
| MANTIS | November 11, 2023 | 12U CubeSat developed under ESA InCubed program, providing high-resolution imagery for energy and mining industries using onboard artificial intelligence. |
| Meteosat Third Generation Imager-1 (MTG-I1) | December 13, 2022 | New-gen satellite aimed at revolutionizing weather forecasting in Europe. |
| Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich | November 21, 2020 | Part of the Copernicus program focused on precise sea-level measurements to understand climate change. Sentinel-6B will launch in 2025. |
Here are some key EO initiatives and missions funded under ESA's 2022 budget:
- Copernicus Sentinel Expansion Missions: Enhance ESA’s EO capabilities with six new satellites addressing gaps in data coverage and advancing areas like greenhouse gas tracking, polar monitoring, and land surface observations. The first mission is expected to launch by 2026.
- Aeolus-2 Mission: Development of an operational mission to measure global wind speeds and improve weather forecasting.
- Digital Twin Earth: Development of a digital twin Earth model leveraging high-performance computing, cloud technologies, and artificial intelligence.
- Third-Party EO Missions: Expansion of third-party EO missions to emphasize collaboration through Copernicus Contributing Missions. These contracts engage private companies to provide data and services to enhance the capabilities of the Copernicus program and allow ESA to integrate commercially sourced EO data for supporting a range of applications.
Additionally, the European EO sector benefits from various other funding sources.
- Copernicus Program: Funded primarily by the European Union, with contributions from ESA for developing and operating Sentinel satellites. EU provides the main budget for Copernicus, while ESA acts as an implementing partner.
- EUMETSAT: Funded by EU member states and not directly by the EU, EUMETSAT operates weather satellites and provides meteorological data services.
- ECMWF: Funded by member and cooperating states, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) focuses on providing and advancing operational weather forecasting services.
- National Space Budgets: Complementing these efforts, individual national space agencies within Europe also maintain their own programs and budgets, further enriching the region's EO capabilities (some of which we will discuss in this article).
Outlook: Europe Advancing Global Leadership in EO
Additionally, ESA’s enhanced EO budget supports other high-impact missions. For instance, hyperspectral imaging satellites under Copernicus are being developed for sustainable agriculture, providing detailed data on soil health, crop status, and water use. ESA is also focusing on missions to track sea ice and snow cover in polar regions.
ESA’s data fuels innovation across sectors, from environmental consulting to carbon trading. As Copernicus expands and ESA launches new climate-oriented missions, Europe is set to become an essential provider of EO data, relied upon by governments, institutions, and commercial entities worldwide.
However, challenges remain, particularly regarding launch capabilities. The absence of a European launcher has delayed the deployment of Sentinel-1C and Sentinel-1D satellites, critical to maintaining radar observation capabilities under the Copernicus program. This issue is compounded by the failure of Sentinel-1B in 2021, leaving a gap in data continuity.
Growing Global Interest in EO
As major space agencies such as ESA and NASA continued to announce new programs and launch advanced EO missions, the two key drivers discussed above (national security and climate change) have led several countries to launch EO satellites and plan new EO programs.
In the sections below, we present some data on the growing interest in EO and dive deep into the EO programs of ten different countries including China, Japan, Italy, Greece and the UAE, among others.
